The December 2015 State of Oregon Economic Indexes of was released today. Full report is available here. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.
Regional economies held firm in the final month of 2015. Highlights of the report include:
- The moving average measures, which smooth monthly volatility, were above average for all major metro areas in December. Recall that “zero” for these measures indicates relative average growth; each region has its own underlying growth rate.
- Residential housing units permitted made substantial negative contributions in the Salem, Eugene-Springfield, and Medford regions; these regions have yet to experience a sustained rebound in housing construction activity despite solid home sales. Expect continued upward pressure on prices if the supply/demand imbalance persists.
- Low unemployment rates, low levels of initial unemployment claims, and steady labor force growth indicate that local labor markets are strong in Oregon.
- Increasing waste collection contributed positively to measures where the data is available (Portland, Eugene-Springfield, and Bend); such increases generally occur during economic expansions and periods of substantial population growth.
- Generally, economic activity across the state is consistent with the pace typically experienced during expansions.
Reminder: The regional measures are prone to potentially large swings due to the volatility of some of the underlying data, particularly measures of employment. The moving average measures smooth out much of that volatility.
Tim Duy – 541.346-4660