Central Oregon Business Index Fourth Quarter 2020

duy@uoregon.edu

Central Oregon Business Index Fourth Quarter 2020

The Central Oregon Business Index continued to rise in the fourth quarter despite the winter wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions on business activities. While a broad array of indicators have improved, the labor market remains depressed. Assuming the pandemic ebbs as vaccines become more widely available, activity should accelerate in 2021…

Full report is here

December 2020 Regional Economic Indicators

duy@uoregon.edu

Good morning.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for December 2020. The release date is February 12, 2021. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Full report here with charts!

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators:

Regional indexes were weak in December as renewed business restrictions weighed on local economic activity.  Highlights of the report: Continue Reading →

December 2020 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

duy@uoregon.edu

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for December 2020. The release date is February 1, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity was -0.22 in December, indicating below average growth, while the moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was at 0.02, an average reading but low relative to past economic expansions.

Highlights of the report include: Continue Reading →

November 2020 Statewide Economic Indicators

duy@uoregon.edu

Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for November 2020. The release date is January 12, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity fell to -0.07 in November from an upwardly revised 0.80 in October. The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was 0.22, above average but low relative to past economic expansions.

Highlights of the report include:

  • The largest components weighing down the measure were construction employment and initial jobless claims. Construction employment has been volatile in recent months; last month this component made a large positive contribution and the general trend of construction employment is up.
  • The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators fell 1.1% in November after a 2% gain in October.
  • Interestingly, initial unemployment claims were up sharply due to additional measures to contain the pandemic but employment services (largely temporary help) workers rose. This suggests that while firms impacted by the new restrictions contracted employment there was some compensating demand in other sectors.
  • Housing units permitted has drifted lower overall but single-family permits have risen; the single-family market is experiencing robust demand. Core capital good manufacturing orders rose again and are well-above pre-pandemic levels.
  • The economy entered the fourth quarter with solid momentum that was soon dampened by the winter wave of the pandemic. So far, however, the damage is considerably less than that experienced last spring as fewer firms are directly impacted. The rollout of Covid-19 vaccines supports an optimistic medium-term outlook but the pandemic is a headwind for the economy in the near-term.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)