July 2018 Oregon Regional Indicators Plus a Reminder to Register For This Year’s Forum

First: Don’t forget to register for this year’s Oregon Economic Forum! You won’t want to miss our exciting lineup of speakers this year! For more information, click on link below.

15th Annual Oregon Economic Forum

Reaching for Economic Equity and Inclusion in the Second Gilded Age

October 17, 2018
Portland Waterfront Marriott
7:00–11:00 AM
Breakfast begins at 7:00 AM
Speakers begin at 7:45 AM

Keynote Speaker: Heather Boushey, Executive Director and Chief Economist, Washington Center for Equitable Growth.

Second: Recent media mentions:

KVAL interview on the Oregon economy (state economist Josh Lehner also interviewed).
Macro Musings podcast on the Yield Curve, Inflation Targeting, and the Federal Reserve.
Bloomberg interview on monetary policy.
Washington Post story on the financial crisis of 2008.
New York Times story on new San Francisco Federal Reserve President
Interview with Oregon Business magazine.
And, finally, my Bloomberg column this week.

Third: Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for July 2018.

Link to full report (with charts) here.

Oregon’s major metropolitan areas continued to benefit in July from the nation’s protracted economic expansion. Highlights of this month’s report include:

  • For all regions covered by this report, both raw and moving average measures (which smooth monthly volatility) were above zero, indicating an above-trend pace of activity (trend activity differs across regions).
  • Housing permits were on the soft side in July, generally neutral to negative. The exception was the central Oregon region; Deschutes County permits have been running in their pre-bubble range of 150-200 per month since the beginning of 2015.
  • Employment components were generally neutral to positive across all regions. Steady economic activity and population growth continue to fuel municipal waste production, creating a positive contribution to the measures.
  • Low unemployment rates and low initial unemployment claims continued to make large positive contributions to the measures; the latter suggest job growth is likely to continue in the months ahead.
  • There is no indication in the data that the current expansion is likely to end anytime soon.