2014 Oregon Economic Forum — Save the Date October 16, 2014

(mostly) Beyond Macroeconomics

October 16, 2014
Portland Art Museum
07:30am – 10:30am
Doors open at 7am – Breakfast is served.
$60 per person / $440 for a table of eight

Registration now available!

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Believe it or not, the current economic expansion will be five years old this summer, making the recession something of a distant memory.  Of course, the business cycle is not dead – at best it is just in remission.  That remission provides an excellent opportunity for this year’s Oregon Economic Forum to address a broader array of issues, including the impacts of marijuana legalization and the pattern of migration that may shape Oregon’s economy in the future.  In addition, we are excited to have Doug Elliott, Wall Street veteran currently with the Brookings Institution, to give his insights into the job Wall Street should be doing for Main Street.  But we won’t ignore the business cycle entirely!  Forum Director Tim Duy kicks off our annual event with his thoughts on the shape and length of the current expansion.

Speakers:

Tim Duy, Director, Oregon Economic Forum, University of Oregon
“Economic Review and Preview”

Ben Hansen, Assistant Professor, University of Oregon
“Implications of Legalizing:  Evidence From Medicinal Marijuana”

Mark McMullen, State Economist, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
“Destination Oregon”

Doug Elliott, Brookings Institute
“Making Wall Street Work for Main Street” (Keynote)

Detailed list of speakers and topics available here!

Special thanks to our Presenting Sponsor KeyBank, our silver sponsor the Portland Business Journal, and our bronze sponsors the Port of Portland, Providence Health Plan, Langley, and the Portland Business Alliance.

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FOMC Statement

At the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting, policymakers released yet another statement that only a FedWatcher could love.  It is definitely an exercise in reading between the lines.  The Fed cut another $10 billion from the asset purchase program, as expected.  The statement acknowledged that unemployment is no longer elevated and inflation has stabilized.  But it is hard to see this as anything more that describing an evolution of activity that is fundamentally consistent with their existing outlook.  Continue to expect the first rate hike around the middle of next year; my expectation leans toward the second quarter over the third….

Continue reading at Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

QEInfinity Not

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June FOMC meeting today, but the contents had little in the way of groundbreaking news.  Most interesting was that Fed officials tired of being pestered about the “October or December” question regarding the end of the QE and decided to more or less commit to the earlier date: Continue Reading

When The Fed Starts Raising Rates

Via Twitter, modest proposal summarizes my last post:

This made me think about the last tightening cycle.  For those that hope to use tighter monetary policy to bolster the case against equities, recall that patience may be required:

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Continue Reading