March 2019 Oregon Statewide Indicators and 2019 Oregon Economic Forum in Salem

Announcing this year’s Willamette Valley Oregon Economic Forum in Salem!

 

 

 

University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for March 2019

Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank

Link to full report (with expanded charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose to 0.66 in March, up from an upwardly-revised 0.50 in February. Highlights of this month’s report include: Continue Reading

February 2019 Oregon Regional Economic Indicators

Good morning.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for February 2019. The release date is April 30, 2019. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Link to full report with charts here!

Regional measures of economic activity were mixed in February but mostly softer compared to previous months. Highlights of this month’s report include:

  • For all regions covered by this report, moving average measures (which smooth monthly volatility) were above zero, indicating an above-trend pace of activity (trend activity differs across regions).
  • The Portland metro region experienced a rare negative outcome in February; the decline was largely attributable to weaker employment numbers. In addition, a slower housing market creates a smaller contribution; slower home price appreciation in fact caused a slight negative contribution while the contribution from home sales remains positive.
  • Weak employment components weighed on other regions as well. Although employment growth in Oregon has slowed, unemployment rates remain low and contribute positively to measures of activity.
  • We may be seeing greater supply side constraints in the labor market; after nearly ten years of economic expansion, the available labor pool may have shrunk sufficiently to impede hiring.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)

January 2019 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for January 2019. The release date is March 18, 2019. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank

Link to full report (with charts) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity jumped to 1.51 in January from an upwardly revised December reading of 0.41.  Highlights of this month’s report include:

  • The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was a more moderate 0.84, though still well above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period). All sectors made positive contributions to the measure. In particular, strong job growth in the manufacturing and construction sectors made large contributions to those sectors.
  • The household sector continues to be supported by broad labor market indicators such as the unemployment rate but also experienced a gain as the equity market weakness of December reversed.
  • The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose in January for the third consecutive month, gaining 0.2 percent over December.
  • Employment services payrolls (mostly temporary help jobs) jumped while initial unemployment claims edged down; the general trends of both indicators remain consistent with future job growth.
  • Consumer confidence fell in January during the partial government shutdown (but rebounded in February). The interest rate spread fell sharply as market participants reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Together, these indicators still suggest ongoing growth in Oregon at an above average pace of activity.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)