May 2019 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for May 2019. The release date is July 12, 2019. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank

Link to full report (with expanded charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity fell to 0.17 in May, down from an upwardly-revised 0.55 in April. Highlights of this month’s report include:

  • The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, fell to 0.48, still above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period).
  • The manufacturing sector contributed negatively; the weakness was concentrated in the national measures for imports by the manufacturing sector (which historically weaken if the domestic economy slows) and the still-puzzling decline in average weekly hours work while the employment component was neutral.
  • The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators was flat in May. Most indicators were fairly unchanged during the month.
  • On the positive side, core manufacturing orders for capital goods edged higher despite some general softening across the sector. The continued strength is encouraging; the data have not weakened as they did during the 2015-16 bust that followed a sharp decline in oil prices.
  • On the negative side, the spread between long- and short-term interest rates fell to just 0.01 percentage points; in June the spread turned negative. This bears watching as a negative yield spread has been a very good recession indicator in the past though, unlike past episodes, the Federal Reserve has already signaled an intention to cut interest rates.

The recent weakness of the UO Index remains insufficient to raise imminent recession concerns. It’s behavior instead is consistent with a mature business cycle in which growth is relatively slower compared to early in the expansion. The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity is consistent with this interpretation. Indicators overall still suggest the Oregon economy is poised for continued growth.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)

April 2019 Oregon Regional Economic Indicators

Good morning.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for April 2019. The release date is June 18, 2019. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Click here for full report including charts!

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators:

Regional measures of economic activity generally softened in April. Highlights of this month’s report include:

  • For all regions covered by this report, raw and moving average measures (which smooth monthly volatility) were above zero, indicating an above-trend pace of activity (trend activity differs across regions).
  • A wide range of indicators contributed to the slowdown evident in the Portland and Central Oregon regions. In particular, slower job growth across major sectors yielded generally negative contributions from the employment components.
  • While employment in other regions was more mixed and unemployment remains low, slower labor force growth weighs down most regional indicators. Home construction activity was generally softer.
  • Housing permits made positive contributions in only the Portland area and Central Oregon; even those gains remain muted compared to past cycles.
  • Low levels of initial unemployment claims suggested continued job growth is most likely for Portland and Eugene areas; an uptick in Central Oregon claims again resulted in an only small positive contribution from that component.

Media Contacts:

Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)

 

March 2019 Oregon Statewide Indicators and 2019 Oregon Economic Forum in Salem

Announcing this year’s Willamette Valley Oregon Economic Forum in Salem!

 

 

 

University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for March 2019

Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank

Link to full report (with expanded charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose to 0.66 in March, up from an upwardly-revised 0.50 in February. Highlights of this month’s report include: Continue Reading