August 2021 Oregon Statewide Economic Indicators

duy@uoregon.edu

Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for Augsut 2021. The release date is October 11, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The Oregon economy slowed in August, but underlying trends indicate the recovery continues. Highlights of the report include:

  • The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose slipped from 0.71 to 0.25 while the moving average measure, which smooths out the monthly volatility, was effectively unchanged at 0.44 (where 0.0 is the average pace of growth since 1990).
  • Employment components again made the most substantial contributions to the overall measure albeit less so than in August. On net, remaining indicators made neutral to modestly negative contributions.
  • The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators fell 0.6% in August, the first decline since November 2020.
  • Employment services payrolls, mostly temporary help employment, edged down while initial unemployment claims ticked up. Housing units permitted decline modestly after a solid gain in July. The weight distance tax (a measure of trucking activity), new orders for core manufactured capital goods (adjusted for inflation), and hours worked in manufacturing all rose, a positive sign for the state’s factory sector.
  • Consumer confidence fell sharply; anecdotal reports suggest rising Covid cases and higher inflation are weighing on sentiment. Still, consumer spending appears resilient to these concerns.

A single month decline in the UO Index is not cause for concern. As the economy expansions, we typically hit a point where the UO index starts moving sideways. The expansion is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, allowing the state’s economy to make up for ground lost during the pandemic.

July 2021 Regional Economic Indicators

duy@uoregon.edu

Good afternoon.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for June 2021. The release date is October 1, 2021. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Full report here with charts!

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators

Growth eased a notch in many of Oregon’s major metro regions in July but the overall growth trajectory remains solid. Highlights include:

  • The moving averages, which track the underlying trend, are all at or above zero (zero represents the average pace of growth for each area).
  • Home construction activity as measured by residential building permits mostly continued to hover near neutral levels despite generally strong demand as measured by residential units sold; this dynamic generally puts upward pressure on housing prices.
  • The improved economy has helped drive down unemployment rates to levels that now contribute positively to the measures. Likewise, in another sign of improving economic conditions, initial unemployment claims have fallen enough that they now make nearly neutral contributions.
  • Municipal waste collections continue to make positive contributions; increasing economic activity generally creates additional waste flow. Employment components generally made neutral to positive contributions with a handful of exceptions such as substantial negative contributions from the education and health service sector in the Eugene areas and the trade, transportation, and utilities sector in Salem. These most likely reflect the impacts of typical variability of the data.
  • Lodging review slipped in the Eugene and Bend regions and created negative contributions but the general uphill trend remains in place. Still, the Delta variant may put some additional downward pressure on lodging in August and September. 

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)