Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for December 2020. The release date is February 1, 2021. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank.
Link to full report (with charts!) here.
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity was -0.22 in December, indicating below average growth, while the moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was at 0.02, an average reading but low relative to past economic expansions.
Highlights of the report include:
- The winter wave of the pandemic and the associated restrictions on activity are visible in the underlaying components. In particular, elevated initial unemployment claims and declining employment in the leisure and hospitality sector weighed substantially on the measure.
- The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators edged up 0.1% in December. Like last month, initial unemployment claims rose due to additional measures to contain the pandemic but employment services (largely temporary help) workers also rose. This points to the sector specific nature of the pandemic; it has left some sectors struggling and others unscathed.
- Housing units permitted are drifting lower but the mix is shifting in favor of single-family housing. Bolstered by low interest rates and demographic trends, home buying has been resilient in this recession.
- Core capital good manufacturing orders continued its upward march while the interest rate spread rose as market participants bid up long term rates on the expectation of improving economic conditions later this year.
- The pandemic remains the primary impediment to economic growth. I anticipate growth will accelerate as the winter surge ebbs and the pace of vaccinations increases but the next few months will still be challenging. With sufficient control of the pandemic, the economy can experience a strong rebound later this year.
Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)
