July 2015 Oregon Regional Indicators

duy@uoregon.edu

The July 2015 Oregon Regional Economic Indexes of  was released today.  Full report is available here. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

PortlandChartJul15

July was another solid month for regional economies in Oregon. Highlights of the report include:

  • Most regions in Oregon were growing above their average pace of activity during the month. Recall that “zero” for these measures indicates relative average growth; each region has its own underlying growth rate.
  • Despite continued strong numbers in housing sales, which include existing housing, housing permits remain a negative factor in the Eugene-Springfield, Rogue Valley, and Salem regions and only a roughly neutral factor in the Portland and Central Oregon areas. Residential construction activity, particularly single family housing, remain restrained.
  • Portland’s measure remained well-above average bolstered by neutral to positive contributions from almost all measures. Generally solid employment numbers boosted the non-Portland regions.
  • Low unemployment rates contributed positively, while the labor force, which has been a negative force in recent months, was generally more supportive of measures.
  • As expected, the Rogue Valley numbers bounced higher, more reflective of the underlying positive trends that were buried by the unusual – relative to past expansions – decline in the labor force. Growth in the Salem and Eugene-Springfield area remains solid although the measures are somewhat weaker than in past expansions.

Reminder:  The regional measures are prone to potentially large swings due to the volatility of some of the underlying data, particularly measures of employment.  The moving average measures smooth out much of that volatility.

June 2015 Oregon Regional Indicators

duy@uoregon.edu

The June 2015 Oregon Regional Economic Indexes of  was released today.  Full report is available here.  We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

BendChartJun15

Measures of activity strengthened in June across almost all of Oregon’s major metro areas. Highlights of the report include:

  • Most regions in Oregon are growing at or above their average pace of activity; the Rogue Valley is an exception, although that appears to be attributable to unusual data behavior. Labor force weakness dragged down the Rogue Valley measure, likely leading to an understatement of underlying activity in the region. Watch for revisions or upward correction in the measure. Recall that “zero” for these measures indicates relative average growth; each region has its own underlying growth rate.
  • Housing permits contributed positively in the Portland measure while having a neutral impact on the Central Oregon measure. Permits were a negative factor in remaining areas despite very strong performance in residential home sales. Although residential construction is generally stronger, in many regions it remains below normal levels.
  • Portland’s measure jumped to well above average, supported by a large gain in the trade, transportation, and utilities employment component. Moderating job growth has been a primary factor in the softening of the Central Oregon measure.
  • The Eugene-Springfield measure rebounded; the moving average measure, which smooths monthly variability, signaled slightly above-average growth. The Salem measure indicates the region continues its steady acceleration.

Reminder: The regional measures are prone to potentially large swings due to the volatility of some of the underlying data, particularly measures of employment. The moving average measures smooth out much of that volatility.