Heading Into Jackson Hole

The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference is next week, and all eyes are looking for signs that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will continue to chart a dovish path for monetary policy well into next year.  Indeed, the conference title itself –  “Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics” – points in that direction, as it emphasizes a topic that is near and dear to Yellen’s heart.  My expectation is that no hawkish surprises emerge next week.  Despite continued improvement in labor markets, Yellen will push the Fed to hold back on aggressively tightening monetary policy.  And with inflation still below target, wage growth constrained, and inflation expectations locked down, she holds all the leverage to make that happen….

Continue reading at Tim Duy’s Fed Watch