The June 2016 Oregon Regional Economic Indicators was released today. Full report is available here. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project:
Oregon regional economies experienced strong growth in June. Highlights of this month’s report include:
- The measures for all regions continue to indicate above average growth (both the “raw” May numbers and the moving average measures of activity, which smooth monthly volatility). Recall that “zero” for these measures indicates relative average growth; each region has its own underlying growth rate.
- New housing permits continues to be the weak spot in the numbers. While the pace of new housing construction rebounded in the Portland and Central Oregon regions to a near-neutral contribution to these measures, construction still lags behind a pace consistent with past expansions. New housing activity remains well below expected levels along the I-5 corridor south of Portland.
- The lack of new construction is surprising given the very strong housing sales numbers, pointing toward persistent disruption of supply chains in the wake of the last recession. Absent a faster pace of construction, expect further upward pressure on prices until the housing market faces a negative demand shock such as a sharp slowing of migration to Oregon.
- Outside still-low home building numbers, remaining indicators are general positive, with particularly solid readings on broad labor market measures such as unemployment, labor force growth, and initial unemployment claims.