This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for October 2017. The release date is December 4, 2017. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity bounced higher in October on the back of surging job gains. Highlights of this month’s report include:
- Note that the jobs numbers have been very volatile in recent months and not likely reflective of the underlying pace of activity in Oregon. Consequently, it is important to follow the three-month moving average, which smooths monthly volatility. The moving average measure has been tracking at a more subdued value of roughly 1.0, consistent with previous expansions but somewhat below the pace of earlier this year (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period).
- Aside from the employment components, a number of factors contributed positively to the measure. In particular, manufacturing rebounded solidly this year while broad labor market indicators such as the unemployment rate, labor force growth, and initial unemployment claims remain indicative of underlying economic stress.
- The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose in October, offsetting the weakness of the past two months.
- Employment services (mostly temporary help workers), average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, consumer sentiment (smoothed), and the interest rate spread all contributed to the rise in the Index.
- Initial unemployment claims hover near historic lows and suggests ongoing job growth. Remaining components were little changed.
Together, these indicators suggest ongoing growth in Oregon at an above average pace of activity.
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)