Good morning! Below is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for May 2018. The release date is July 7, 2018. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose slightly to 0.88 from an upwardly revised April reading of 0.80. Highlights of this month’s report include:
- The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, stood at 0.83, well above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period). Weak employment numbers weighted on the services sectors while all other sectors made positive contributions to the measure.
- The manufacturing sector continues to enjoy solid activity. Still, anecdotally firms worry about the impact of tariff battles. Solid construction employment supported the measure in May; in general, construction activity remains strong.
- Only the civilian labor force component weighed on the household sector. Labor force growth may be slowing, which if sustained may increase the challenges facing firms looking to expand their workforces.
- The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators has been largely tracking sideways this year. Such period of little or no upward movement typically occur during the mature stage of business cycles as some of the indicators stabilize.
- The spread between long and short-term interest rates fell again; the spread typically declines during periods in which the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates.
Together, these indicators suggest ongoing growth in Oregon at an above average pace of activity.
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)