This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for November 2018. The release date is February 7, 20189. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank
Note: The government shutdown delayed the release of some of the data used to construct these measures. I will be catching up with the reports as the new data becomes available.
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity fell to 0.50 in November from an upwardly revised October reading of 0.90. Highlights of this month’s report include:
The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, was 0.76, well above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period).
Only the service sector made a negative contribution to the measure; the contributions from the construction and manufacturing sectors were just slightly positive.
The household sector made a large positive contribution, buoyed the broad labor market indicators of unemployment and initial claims as well as consumer confidence. Still, softer job growth weighed on the services sector component.
The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators was again flat in November as many indicators held fairly steady or moved in small but opposite directions.
For example, employment services payrolls (mostly temporary help jobs) climbed while initial unemployment claims also rose. The latter, however, remains at historically very low levels.
The decline in the UO Index in recent months is not sufficient to raise recession concerns. Together, these indicators still suggest ongoing growth in Oregon at an above average pace of activity.
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)