This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for February 2020. The release date April 6, 2020. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose in February from 0.07 to 0.71. The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, remains in positive territory and indicates above average growth in Oregon. The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators slipped 0.2% during the month; it has been moving largely sideways for several months.
- This will be the last statewide economic impact report not heavily affected by the sudden stop in activity necessitated to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus Covid-19.
- Recent reports on a national level reveal the depth of the economic damage associated with the shutdown. The national employment situation report revealed that firms shed on net 701,000 employees while the unemployment rose from 3.5% to 4.4%.
- Nationwide, 6.6 million unemployment claims were filed for the week ending March 28. Prior to the virus, initial claims was tracking just over 200,000 claims each week.
- Oregon is experiencing a similar pattern of data with unemployment claims spiking in recent weeks. Reported claims are lagging the 92,700 filed claims due to processing delays.
- The economy has clearly entered a recession; the unemployment rate will likely rise to and possibly beyond that experienced in the last recession.
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)