Oregon Economic Forum

Good afternoon and happy Election Day! Hopefully this will help distract you while you await election results.

Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for September 2020. The release date is November 3, 2020. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Click here for full report!

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity fell to -0.29 in September from an upwardly revised 0.44 in August.  Highlights of this month’s report include: Continue Reading →

Good morning.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for August 2020. The release date is October 27, 2020. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Full report here with charts!

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators:

Regional indexes were nearly neutral to positive, cooling a bit as expected after the initial rebound from this year’s business shutdowns Highlights of this month’s report include:

• Moving average measures, which smooth monthly volatility, remained in a similar pattern to last month with the Salem and Rogue Valley moving average measures still negative because they require a longer lag to smooth the monthly volatility.
• Reflecting a shift from the initial wave of re-hiring when restrictions on activity were eased, employment component contributions were generally muted relative to recent months. The positive impact of falling unemployment rates were evident in the less negative or even neutral contributions although initial unemployment claims remain elevated and a drag on the measures.
• Housing permits made near neutral contributions in all regions. In response to lower mortgage rates and demographic trends, demand for homes accelerated during the pandemic.
• If builders do not match the demand with an increased pace of building, we will continue to experience upward pressure on prices. This pressure may be intensified in regions affected by wildfires.
• Stronger lodging revenue and airport traffic helped support the Central Oregon measure. Overall, the pace of the recovery is slowing as anticipated and will likely remain muted until people feel comfortable returning to pre-pandemic patterns of consumption.

Media Contacts:
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)

This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for August 2020. The release date is October 6, 2020. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank!

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose from a revised -0.03 in July to 0.22 in August. The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, now stands at 0.73, which equates to above average growth in Oregon. Highlights of the report include:

• The construction and employment-heavy services sectors both made positive contributions. The manufacturing sector made a negative contribution, weighed down by a low level of hours worked in the sector.
• Importantly, the household sector now makes a positive contribution due to a falling level of initial unemployment claims and a lower unemployment rate.
• The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose 0.9%. A wide range of indicators improved during the month: Initial unemployment claims, employment services payrolls, the Oregon weight-miles tax (a measure of trucking activity), and core manufacturing orders.
• New housing permits continues to hold steady. Consumer sentiment and hours worked in manufacturing remain the weaker spots on the data. Consumer sentiment should rise as unemployment rates fall further.
• As a technical matter, the recession most likely lasted one quarter. Growth rebounded in the third quarter of this year; forecasters increasingly expect 30% or higher growth in the third quarter. While not enough to fully recover the losses from earlier in the year, the recovery is expected to be sustainable but the pace of further gains remains uncertain.

Media Contacts:

Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)

Good morning.  Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for July 2020. The release date is September 29, 2020. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

Oregon Regional Economic Indicators:

Regional indexes were again all positive in July as the economy continued to rebound from the lockdowns earlier this year. Highlights of this month’s report include: Continue Reading →

The previous email contained a broken link. The corrected link to the Statewide Economic Indicators for July 2o2o is:

Link to full report (with charts!) here.

Sorry for any confusion.