This is the University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for February 2019. The release date is April 11, 2019. Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity fell to 0.38 in February after spiking to 1.55 the previous month. Highlights of this month’s report include:
- The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, stood at 0.77, well above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period). Still, growth pulled back over the last year compared to 2017.
- Only the household sector made a substantial positive contribution in February whereas the manufacturing and construction sectors made small negative and positive contributions, respectively. The household sector has been held up by still strong broad labor market indicators such as the unemployment rate; other components are generally just modestly positive.
- The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators slipped 0.8% in February while January’s gain was revised to a small decline. Rising initial unemployment claims was a primary culprit in the decline of the UO Index; claims were elevated nationally as well but look to be stabilizing in the most recent data.
- Other components changed only modestly. Building permits have gained over the past six months; the weakness in that component last year appears to have passed.
- The recent decline of the UO Index remains insufficient to raise imminent recession concerns. It’s behavior instead is consistent with a mature business cycle in which growth is relatively slower compared to early in the expansion. Indicators overall still suggest the economy is poised for continued growth.
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)