Good morning. Below is the University of Oregon Regional Economic Indexes for February 2019. The release date is April 30, 2019. We thank KeyBank for their generous support of this project.
Regional measures of economic activity were mixed in February but mostly softer compared to previous months. Highlights of this month’s report include:
- For all regions covered by this report, moving average measures (which smooth monthly volatility) were above zero, indicating an above-trend pace of activity (trend activity differs across regions).
- The Portland metro region experienced a rare negative outcome in February; the decline was largely attributable to weaker employment numbers. In addition, a slower housing market creates a smaller contribution; slower home price appreciation in fact caused a slight negative contribution while the contribution from home sales remains positive.
- Weak employment components weighed on other regions as well. Although employment growth in Oregon has slowed, unemployment rates remain low and contribute positively to measures of activity.
- We may be seeing greater supply side constraints in the labor market; after nearly ten years of economic expansion, the available labor pool may have shrunk sufficiently to impede hiring.
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)