Announcing this year’s Willamette Valley Oregon Economic Forum in Salem!
University of Oregon State of Oregon Economic Indicators for March 2019
Special thanks to our sponsor, KeyBank
The Oregon Measure of Economic Activity rose to 0.66 in March, up from an upwardly-revised 0.50 in February. Highlights of this month’s report include:
- The moving average measure, which smooths out the volatility, edged up to 0.90, well above average (“zero” indicates average growth over the 1990-present period).
- Only the manufacturing sector, weighed down by the hours worked component, made a negative contribution; hours worked appears unusually weak and inconsistent with the broad trends in manufacturing data.
- Rising building permits supported the construction sector while a rebound in job growth helped stabilize the services sector. The household sector continues to make a solid positive contribution, buoyed by low unemployment numbers.
- Building permits (smoothed) continue to edge higher, rebounding from last year’s softening. This suggests the underlying demand for housing remains solid. Consumer sentiment continues to hover near recent highs. In a good sign that firms remain willing to invest in new equipment, core manufacturing orders rose to its highest level since October.
- The recent decline of the UO Index remains insufficient to raise imminent recession concerns. It’s behavior instead is consistent with a mature business cycle in which growth is relatively slower compared to early in the expansion. Indicators overall still suggest the economy is poised for continued growth.
Tim Duy – 541.346.4660 (w)